It’s Election Day again in America, although, of course, tens of millions of votes have already been cast. Still, it’s the day when we find out what the votes say, although, of course, it might take a week or more in some states. Some states are very good at counting votes, like Florida (because of the trouble in 2000, I’m told), which is about to offer a memorable show tonight, as it decisively becomes a Republican state, with Gov. DeSantis achieving an impressive victory; he is, however, term-limited & this is his last election in his state. Some states are bad at counting votes (California, notoriously), sometimes for reasons of law—in some states, early votes can only be counted after voting ends, so that takes more time. Moreover, elections are more decentralized in America than in any other country, relying to a very large extent on the public spirit of the citizenry; volunteers take care of much of the work, largely unthanked; there are multiple authorities & many different arrangements involved, which used to be alright, but now, given the great anger & suspicions animating the people, elections are more closely scrutinized than in a long time, without however any practical achievements. Election Day is unlikely to solve our troubles—elections are themselves in trouble & will face various kinds of reform proposals &, almost as important & much more effective, all sorts of private initiatives to rework them for partisan purposes.
Too much winning
The major reason why we do not like elections anymore is that we are failing to make them count. In my generation, the Congress has shifted majorities with a shocking frequency. Behold the five “wave” elections:
Gingrich
1994 GOP won 8 Senate seats, 54 House (6.8% popular vote margin)anti-Iraq War, financial crash, & Obama 2006-8
2006 Dems won 5 Senate seats, 31 House (8% popular vote margin)
2008 Dems won even more seats: 8 Senate, 21 House (10.6% popular vote margin)Tea Party & Obamacare
2010 GOP won 6 Senate seats, 63 House (6.8% popular vote margin)
2014 GOP won even more seats: 9 Senate, 13 House (5.7% popular vote margin)Trump & COVID
2018 Dems won 41 House seats (8.6% popular vote margin)
but GOP won 2 Senate seats
2020 Dems won 3 Senate seats & thus the majority
but GOP won 14 House seats (3.1% popular vote margin)COVID & Biden 2022
(I guess GOP will win 4 Senate seats & 30+ House seats, to say nothing of more legislatures & gubernatorial offices)
There was only one such shock in the two generations from FDR to Mr. Clinton. In 1946, the GOP, after years of build-up, won both Houses of Congress, only to lose it again in 1948 to Truman; the GOP won control again in 1952 with Eisenhower & lost it for good in 1954; the GOP would only win the Senate again & hold it with Reagan, 1980-6; Dems controlled American politics largely in those two generations. That period established most of the institutional habits & beliefs among voters, too, which have been undone gradually in these five wave elections. That Americans change their minds after a generation or two should not be a shock, but it is shocking that Americans cannot make up their minds during an entire generation.
The results of all of these victories & all the excitement have been largely bad. Since Mr. Clinton, America has been in obvious decline, whether one looks at domestic affairs—economic crises & social decay—or at foreign affairs—lost wars & rising adversaries. The society & the constitutional institutions are failing, gradually, in parallel, & public trust is therefore also failing. By definition, America cannot have two majority parties; historically, it’s had one; in my lifetime, it has had none, but only two minority parties. It is a pity that the only period of party gov’t, legislative & executive both, was under the younger Mr. Bush, 2001-7, which proved disastrous economically & militarily, since that was the only opportunity to restore some reasonableness to gov’t. The other presidents, Messrs. Clinton, Obama, Trump, & Biden, have only enjoyed victory briefly, until the first off-year election, consigning them to so much partisan fighting that elections effectively replaced most of political life. America needs a majority party again. My friend Henry Olsen believes the GOP might now become such a party, driven by electoral demographic changes & the shock Mr. Trump delivered in 2016, though only by putting Mr. Trump behind. (See his very good article in the Washington Post.)
PoMoCon predictions
I’ll close with some notes on my two predictions, victories in the Senate races in Ohio & Arizona, for Messrs. Vance & Masters. I believe polls already show a comfortable, affirming victory in Ohio, but Arizona is apparently very close; no doubt, Mr. Vance has proved to be much the better candidate, much closer to the Republican ideal: Hard-working & successful in business, a husband & father, a churchgoing Christian, &, even more, a veteran. As middle America as it gets. But he has also had a much more favorable state for Republicans, whereas Arizona was recently lost to Democrats at the national level. You can find my recommendations for these two candidates from last spring & summer here, here, & here, as well as my congratulations once they won their primaries this summer.
I had five things in mind when I made these predictions, none of which was my discovery, but publicly available knowledge.
(1) Most presidents lose the first Congressional election after they win their presidential election; a peculiarity of American politics that’s especially true in this generation. Throughout the summer, many clever or prestigious people & institutions pretended that this isn’t so, but it is so & it would have been good for conservatives & Republicans to hammer the point home a thousand times, since even obvious truths can be temporarily forgotten or doubted…
(2) Mr. Biden has been steadily, woefully unpopular, which has been the norm this beginning of a century. It’s very rare for a legislator to do much better than the president, since we have partisan elections & each party has a leader, or at least figurehead.
(3) The major domestic problems—crime, immigration, inflation, a bad economy, & COVID despotism—would all hurt the Democrats who are rightly blamed for the national misery, while the urgent foreign problem, the war Mr. Biden is waging on Russia is of little interest to the country, especially the GOP electorate.
(4) Mr. Peter Thiel, a very clever investor, had hired, worked with, & supported these men in their political ambitions, donating $10 million to each to start off their campaigns & helping them get in touch with Mr. Trump; nowadays, that money doesn’t go far in a Senatorial election, by the way.
(5) The candidates are young, very good fits for the Republican electorate, very eager to say shocking things to appeal to the coalition that sent Mr. Trump to the White House, & associated with almost everyone of the new organizations & figures trying to transform conservatism into a fighting faith. It’s a shame that the party did not do more for these candidates, since this will cause trouble down the road; but the GOP is not a party interested in recruiting political talent, much less cultivating it…
The GOP does not have a national agreement on the urgent political problems or the overall answer to them in light of the party’s electorate, elites, & institutions. It is still a party decided against governing America, with temporary hesitations. That is ultimately why it is a minority party, despite winning half the elections since Reagan & holding both elected branches longer. I am convinced that this election will not change that, but it may be the beginning of the change, especially since, as I said, there are newer politicians & newer institutions intent on gov’t. It’s hard to say which of them will succeed, since none of them possesses the true political science nor is anyone championed by organizations willing to claim they know the path to an American majority.